Despite oil & gas declines, 2022 export finance volumes hold up
TXF Intelligence's 2022 export finance data report is nearly here. Read some of the key takeaways from the full-year report.
The export finance industry might finally be getting a glimpse of what a post-hydrocarbons market might look like. TXF Intelligence’s 2022 export finance data, which is due to be released at the end of the week, shows a small fall in volumes from $105 billion to $101 billion. Leading that fall was a decline in oil & gas volumes from $18 billion to $10.5 billion.
But the data suggest that the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on export finance has been comparatively local. Two Russian transactions that closed in the fourth quarter of 2021 - Amur Gas and Arctic LNG 2 - between them accounted for $14 billion of the year’s financing activity.
The borrowers and sponsors for both projects have made confident noises about the impact of the invasion and subsequent sanctions on the financing. But even if those financings can be repaid immediately or down the line, it’s clear that Russia is unlikely to be a significant source of cross-border export finance activity in the near future.
The data do not show a pronounced shift on the part of ECAs towards supporting renewables, since volumes in that sector are also down a little. The only real way for ECAs to support renewables deployment at scale is through big-ticket offshore wind financings. Those financings are patchy, and can run into teething troubles.
Bright spots in the 2022 figures include the electricity transmission sector, where efforts to support decarbonisation are gathering pace, as well as in telecoms, where mobile network upgrades - most of them for incumbent operators, are driving strong levels of export finance activity.
TXF Intelligence’s 2022 data report will be available to TXF subscribers shortly from our data reports homepage. Meanwhile our market survey is currently underway and is open for responses. We want to hear from borrowers, banks and ECAs active in export finance. You can fill out the survey here.
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