Global liquidity in 2014: What financing options are available to commodity producers?
PXF vs. clean lending vs. the bond market – we examine all three, look at the trends in each, and our panel gives expectation for the year ahead. We will look at pricing, availability and demand for each area, as well as examining corporate attitudes
The impact of producer consolidation on commodity finance
The Rosneft jumbo syndication was the latest example of the large amounts of liquidity available to the ‘right’ borrowers. Liquidity rich producers are using their position to acquire smaller companies with less access to finance.
But is a consolidated list of borrowers good for commodity finance?
The numbers might be higher, but larger borrowers are also able to look at clean lending or the bond market. Will commodity finance solutions be in such high demand?
Is the bond market the most prescient threat to medium-term commodity finance?
The have’s and the have not’s
Big players are increasingly able to get large financing and very low prices. However, at the same time, banks are becoming increasingly conservative in their attitude to risk and non-core borrowers.
Is this polarization something new, or a natural part of the cycle? How long will funding be as big a challenge for smaller players, and what options are open to them?
How low can pricing become on the larger deals? Is there a point when it is no longer worth lending? Is there a point where pricing is no longer reflective of risk and when will we reach this point?
The changing financing environment for traders
Assembling and using RCFs - are such facilities good for all parties involved Diversifying finance into non-traditional sources
How has the array of solutions open to traders changed over the years, and will such diversity always be the case?
A guide to global trade flows in 2014
What are the changes since the crisis? Where are the new territories and expansions that have developed? What will be the most important trends going forward and how will this impact what is financed, and crucially, by who?
Global macro themes: When the tide goes out
Uneven global recovery: West vs The Rest?
Impact of tapering across financial markets
Emerging markets turbulence: a blip or perfect storm? How to stay on top?
Metals and minerals: commodity price guide 2014
From aluminum to zinc - what are commodities prices doing? How can we identify regional spreads? What does this mean for the industry?
The world in 2014: Politics, economics and global trends
Hot spots, terrorism, global risk, growth economies and where borrowers and financiers sit within all this.
When will economic growth lead commodity producers into a higher level of investment again? When will this manifest itself in terms of demand for finance?
The repositioning of commodity finance
How do banks sell commodity finance solutions, and what makes borrowers want to use them?
Is it still a market share play for some institutions? Should it be about profit, or how commodity finance can be a gateway into other products?
Is commodity finance just an extension of corporate finance?
Is the tail now wagging the dog and can certain borrowers continue to drive the deal? Is the cross-sell power of commodity finance as strong as ever?
Assessing risk in commodity finance
The attitude of different banks to risks in commodity finance can fluctuate on a deal by deal basis. What might work one day does not then get through the next. Credit committees can be the bane of the commodity banker’s life.
We look to the other side of the equation. This session will examine how risks in commodity finance can have a far-reaching impact across the rest of the bank. What are the risks that credit officers see and how can the commodity finance industry work with credit officers to ensure the right deals get done, and warning signals are adhered to and dealt with early in the process
Secured and unsecured: Evaluating trader and RCF risk
Is price reflective of risk? Are the true risks of unsecured lending been fully taken into account by all parties? How should this be assessed?
Are some traders becoming too strong in terms of the rates and package they are able to negotiate?
Is there a danger of a herd mentality amongst some banks on certain larger transactions? What lessons can be learned from the recent past?
Do we need a new set of guidelines on the appropriate ways to use and manage an RCF?
RCFs and risk – An open discussion
Is there too much unsecured lending directed towards traders and are all parties pricing risk in the right way?
Can banks keep the regulators happy when it comes to trade finance?
The list of regulatory challenges facing commodity bankers continues to grow:
Sanctions, anti-money laundering, terrorist financing, KYC, KYCC…
This practical session will examine recent and proposed regulations to trade and advise on what banks can do practically and in terms of structuring their deals to assuage the concerns that the regulators have in this market
Basel III: What will be the real impacts on provision of commodity finance?
Following increased scrutiny from regulators, what impact will various initiatives have on pricing and the trade product in general. How will Return on RWA, Return on Assets and the Supplemental Leverage ration impact provision? What will be the response of the business?
This talk will focus less on the detail, but more on the practical implications
Is Basel III a bank problem or a customer problem?
The constraints that aspects of Basel III will place on the trade finance sector have been communicated strongly by financiers for some time. But what are the thoughts and response of the wider industry? Are traders and producers genuinely concerned by the impact Basel III will have on bank capacity to lend? Are they comfortable with the idea of an increase in a cost of finance?
Navigating the storm: Keeping the commodities business on track in times of political upheaval
Insurance has taken an inflated role in commodity finance post-crisis. With political flashpoints new and old coming to the fore in 2014, the need for cover is likely to persist.
Where are the areas most susceptible to political risk? What is the capacity of the insurance sector? What allows high levels of risk appetite to persist? And what are the pricing trends for such policies? Has insurance cover become an alternative to syndication and distribution?
Storytelling and lessons learned
A pre-drinks Idea lab: Tall tales, yarns and problems solved from the commodity finance back catalog. Whenever TXF speak to ’seasoned’ commodity finance professionals, we are always surprised and never fail to be entertained and engaged by the stories we are told. Many describe challenging situations, warzones, crooked counterparties, significant historical points in time and successes against the odds.
We will highlight groundbreaking successes and look at what can be done when it all goes wrong.
An intimate session telling some of these stories of deals gone by will be fun, engaging and genuinely educational