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25 February 2022

TXF Trade Risk Briefing: There is no such thing as a winnable trade war

Head of Trade, Treasury and Risk
WATCH ON DEMAND. Rebecca Harding, CEO of Coriolis Technologies discusses the very fluid situation in Ukraine with TXF in regards to how it impacts global trade – from the perspectives of sanctions on Russia, financial flows, payments and physical trade. Trade wars are not likely to be winnable. 

In the thick of a full-blown weaponization of trade in the current crisis, what is the data telling us about the ‘new rules’ of trade wars in the wake of President Putin's invasion of Ukraine?

TXF Trade Risk Briefing: There is no such thing as a winnable trade war

Original air date: 25 February 2022 - available to watch on demand here

In this briefing, Rebecca Harding discusses the situation that trade finance providers and banks are becoming de-facto ‘boots on the ground’. That means the banks through regulation and sanctions are being compelled to implement new policies. 

We discuss first, the practical impact of sanctions on commodity trade and oil and gas prices,  the shift surrounding Nord Stream 2, second the involvement of international payments mechanisms, specifically SWIFT in the fast-moving situation and third the potentials for rebalancing trade power relationships – specifically around Russia’s relationship with China and a pivot from East West to East East – and its limitations. 

Further talking points:

  • Physical trade around the Black Sea – and the impact, particularly on softs, of the current sanctions
  • How Russia can respond to sanctions in terms of physical trade
  • How previous sanctions have raised unusual trade flow patterns and things for banks to watch out for
  • The role of the international payments system (SWIFT) and the potential pitfalls of using it as a bargaining device

TXF Trade Risk Briefings are free to watch - register here to gain access



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